Blu-ray - DOA?

[Danno321]

Toshiba threw in the towel about 1.5 years ago with HD-DVD.  So where is Blu-ray (BR) today?  As of March 2009 Netflix only had 1,300 BR Titles.  Netflix at this time added a BR surcharge to those still wanting to rent BR discs.  Are we at the Chicken/Egg stage still?  Will HD streaming make BR moot?

I discontinued my BR Netflix access because very few movies I rented were in BR formar (only 1 over a period of one year).

[gparris]

DVD has been out for over a dozen years, BD has not.
BD needs to reduce its pricing structure to equal DVD or within a few dollars of it to gain more exceptance, but BD players have gone down to reasonable pricing, some as low as $100 or less, the average is less than $250, depending on features and sales.
DVD players in 1999 were more expensive, IMO, than the fully-featured BD players sold today, but that did not stop buyers then for DVD players or now...for BD players.
As far as titles go, the Best Buy website lists over 2 thousand BD titles either available or coming, but BB is no Amazon with selection-or price.

Further reviewing some of the pricing there, the new BD releases are priced at Amazon closer to a standard after-sale DVD there, while not close enough, but much closer than a year so ago, based on my receipt history, so pricing is coming down, just not to DVD levels...yet.
I wouldn't use Netflix as a marketing model, rather, use data as to what is going on for overall BD sales - and - rentals - in all locations, overall.

I'm not certain what you are really attempting to say, but if you don't like BD, sell your player and I'm certain you will get buyers, quickly...hardly BD is DOA.

[Steve Mann]

...I discontinued my BR Netflix access because very few movies I rented were in BR formar (only 1 over a period of one year).

Man, we must have completely different tastes in movies. We rent an average of 2 movies a week and over the last 6 months or more I'd have to say 95% of them were BR. Our queue is full of BR titles.

[Gamera]

HD streaming make BR moot?

Yes.

It may take some time for the streaming/download thing to take hold and in the meantime BR may achieve some moderate level of success. However I believe the very idea of owning and storing physical media is on the way out and will ultimately doom BR. I mean who has space to store all those CDs, DVDs, BRs, VHS, etc, etc, etc. I think DVDs will be the last big physical media. From here on out it will all be virtual media in the form of MP3, MP4, and other software codecs that can be stored on a variety of rewritable hard drives, flash drives, etc.

[gparris]

Yes.

It may take some time for the streaming/download thing to take hold and in the meantime BR may achieve some moderate level of success. However I believe the very idea of owning and storing physical media is on the way out and will ultimately doom BR. I mean who has space to store all those CDs, DVDs, BRs, VHS, etc, etc, etc. I think DVDs will be the last big physical media. From here on out it will all be virtual media in the form of MP3, MP4, and other software codecs that can be stored on a variety of rewritable hard drives, flash drives, etc.

Definitely your opinion, but I don't agree at all!

Many folks I know of have DVDs and BDs that they swap out, exchange and keep their favouites of.
They like the ability to hold physical media in their hands and watch it anywhere at any time.

These "physical media holder" folks have proud collections in their racks and shelves, while others use DVD/CD changers (once they know that these exist), including me, for almost instant access without digging around for them. Even in changers, they can still quickly take the disc out and play in the car, another part of the house and so on.

IF the quality of BD in both video and audio can be replicated in a memory stick or a backed-up 100TB drive (example), disc media may then fail and only then.
As for today's tech, the only way to get downloaded movies is unplugging a hard drive in a PC so others can watch legally-acquired movies, but that is the state of it for now, disc media remains.

Even with new tech media, it must find a way for admirers to access the cover art that many of these movies and music offer today and it must be found somehow because it is that which many still cherish.

Until anyone in the country can download (legally) a BD movie in minutes, not hours and hours, maintaining it in its current quality and keep it for playback whenever and whereever and swap it out among friends and family, forget it.

[Talos4]

Definitely your opinion, but I don't agree at all!

Many folks I know of have DVDs and BDs that they swap out, exchange and keep their favouites of.
They like the ability to hold physical media in their hands and watch it anywhere at any time.

These "physical media holder" folks have proud collections in their racks and shelves, while others use DVD/CD changers (once they know that these exist), including me, for almost instant access without digging around for them. Even in changers, they can still quickly take the disc out and play in the car, another part of the house and so on.

I agree with this, I have nearly 400 DVD titles and the same number of CD's.

I do not have a single case on a shelf. I have a 400 disc DVD changer and a 400 disc CD changer. Each has the ability to show cover art on my display.

The CD changer is available throughout the house and the deck outside. We have "Groups" setup to listen to particular genre's of music to fit the mood of the day if you will.

The DVD changer is not, However as stated above it's easy enough to carry the disc to another room or let's say a hotel room while on a trip etc.

There is nothing simpler than turning on the changer and having nearly instant access to each type of media.

I have taken the time to catalog each collection into binders with cover art and pertinent info on each disc. Turn a page, get the disc number and away we go.

Also in our household we have numerous ipods, PC Networked D* DVR's, a networked XBOX 360 for that's used Netflix access and a portable DVD player.

I have not made the plunge into BD for several reasons, Media cost being the first. Not having a 1080p display is another.  I do understand that even with a 1080i display the increase in PQ is apparently remarkable but, I cannot justify the additional cost especially with the current economy.

Concerning downloading, if the cableco's really are aggressively pursuing bandwidth caps because of apparent structural limitations where is the advantage?  Having to wait hours or days to download compared to seconds with my physical media?

Guess which way I'm going.

[SRW1000]

Definitely your opinion, but I don't agree at all!

Many folks I know of have DVDs and BDs that they swap out, exchange and keep their favouites of.
They like the ability to hold physical media in their hands and watch it anywhere at any time.

These "physical media holder" folks have proud collections in their racks and shelves, while others use DVD/CD changers (once they know that these exist), including me, for almost instant access without digging around for them. Even in changers, they can still quickly take the disc out and play in the car, another part of the house and so on.

IF the quality of BD in both video and audio can be replicated in a memory stick or a backed-up 100TB drive (example), disc media may then fail and only then.
As for today's tech, the only way to get downloaded movies is unplugging a hard drive in a PC so others can watch legally-acquired movies, but that is the state of it for now, disc media remains.

Even with new tech media, it must find a way for admirers to access the cover art that many of these movies and music offer today and it must be found somehow because it is that which many still cherish.

Until anyone in the country can download (legally) a BD movie in minutes, not hours and hours, maintaining it in its current quality and keep it for playback whenever and whereever and swap it out among friends and family, forget it.

I have a different take on it.  It looks like US consumers are moving more and more to rental-based consumption, rather than ownership.  As this happens, the idea of having access to well over 100,000 titles at the push of a button will look better and better.  There will still be some segment of the market that will want to own, but many others would gladly exchange ownership for greater access to titles.

Arguing against physical media:

• Life of media.  Sure, those discs may last for a long time, but what's their value once they're released on a new format?  I spent a lot on laserdiscs that I have no interest in watching anymore.  The same goes for DVDs, once the titles have been released on BD.  It was also true of VHS, but most of those were donated to Good Will a few years ago.
• Cost of media compared to renting.  How many times do you have to watch a movie before you've made up the extra cost of ownership?  10 times?  Are there that many movies the average person would watch more than 10 times during the (format) lifetime of the disc?
• Storage space

This won't be a quick revolution, though.  There are still a number of obstacles:

• Download price.  This is the biggest problem.  Download rentals are currently around $5.  That price has to drop to a level consistent with physical rentals, which if you look at Netflix, Blockbuster, and Redbox, averages about $2 per movie.
• Quality.  This is becoming less of an issue.  The HDX titles offered by Vudu are close to BD quality.  As codecs become more and more efficient, and as network bandwidth becomes cheaper, this will not longer be a serious issue.  An alternative would be XstreamHD, if it ever launches, which has higher tech specs than BD does.
• Speed.  This can also be overcome.  Bandwidth speed is increasing, and costs are decreasing for providers.  Titles can also be pre downloaded, so they trickle in overnight or longer.  It wouldn't allow for instant access until fully downloaded, but that's a minor, and temporary, compromise.

One thing working to accelerate this is the increase in illegal downloads.  I am not advocating them, nor do I use them, but it's an issues that the studios have to face.   Studios can continue to follow the (losing) path of the music industry, or they can embrace the change and capture the download market while it's still young.  If they wait too long, the value of the product will drop to the point where nobody will be willing to pay even a couple of bucks for a movie.  That would be a horrible outcome, since it would drain money away from new movies and releases, which is bad for everyone.

One thing is for sure, we're at the cusp of an exciting change.  Netflix's streaming option is a big step in this direction, with over 12,000 titles available.  Hulu is another interesting option, and it's free.  Both services suffer from poor title availability, and quality compromises, but it's a start.

Scott

[SRW1000]

I have not made the plunge into BD for several reasons, Media cost being the first. Not having a 1080p display is another.  I do understand that even with a 1080i display the increase in PQ is apparently remarkable but, I cannot justify the additional cost especially with the current economy.

Depending on the size of your display, even a 720p display will show the differences between BD and DVD.  As long as your TV has a good deinterlacer, you'd be getting a fantastic picture with a BD player.

With player prices dropping (check the Deals and Steals section for a $100 unit), there's no reason to wait any longer.  Couple one of those players with an online rental program (Netflix or Blockbuster, with Blockbuster being cheaper), and you can start seeing the benefits of BD for about $2 per movie.  Well worth the relatively minor investment.

Scott

[AndrewP]

BluRay from Netflix are the best choice right now.
Last week I got a free pay-per view coupon from DirecTV and ordered their 1080p DirecTV Cinema feature Watchmen. I have to tell it was very good, as close to BluRay as it can be. Sound was great too, but I don't have latest TRUEHD Audio receiver, so can't tell if there is a difference with BluRay audio. Picture quality was very close.
Have to stay with BluRay, you can't beat Netflix pricing, $10/month wiht 1 BluRay at a time. Usually I'll have 6-7/month. So it is less then $2 for disk. DirecTV charging $6 for movie. If DirecTV will offer something close in price to Netflix then it will a viable option too.

[SRW1000]

Have to stay with BluRay, you can't beat Netflix pricing, $10/month wiht 1 BluRay at a time.

Blockbuster Online's one-at-a-time plan is only $8.99 per month (no Blu-ray surcharge).  Both offer great value, but Blockbuster is slightly cheaper.

Scott

[Talos4]

Depending on the size of your display, even a 720p display will show the differences between BD and DVD.  As long as your TV has a good deinterlacer, you'd be getting a fantastic picture with a BD player.
Scott

My main 48" display has a very good de-interlacer, and that's what I keep hearing, that the differences would be remarkable.  

I guess maybe the real problem is format/hardware purchase fatigue.

Things over the past 10 or so years have changed so quickly and often and I have sunk so much money into "keeping up" that maybe I've just had enough for a while. And that's just the HT, let's not talk about our PC's.  

When I think back on what gear I had 10 years ago and where I am now, the wallet is truly worn out.   As my signature say's the wallet is empty but I'm happy!

[Gamera]

Definitely your opinion, but I don't agree at all!

Many folks I know of have DVDs and BDs that they swap out, exchange and keep their favouites of.
They like the ability to hold physical media in their hands and watch it anywhere at any time.

These "physical media holder" folks have proud collections in their racks and shelves...

As you say, these are opinions but let me clarify my point:

The discs you own are not ViewMaster reels. You can't hold them to the light and see pictures. To view the movies you need a player and a monitor. Until a movie is playing it's really just a hunk of plastic you store. The act of choosing a movie may currently require viewing a picture on a DVD case in storage but that's really the extent of what your collection does for the actual movie watching experience.

It's kind of like saying you're a millionaire because you own a collection of poker chips. Until you cash in those chips, it's really just a collection of plastic. And unless you store your savings in your mattress, you'll likely store the money in a bank once it's cashed. The bank will store, organize, manage and distribute the money for you. It's still money you own, you just don't store it locally.

Current technology already offers solutions for streaming, storing locally, storing offsite, delivering, and viewing which is being improved everyday. There's really no need for a magic, new technology, just a refinement and merging of existing technologies. Quality of BR or any other media is dependent on hardware. The limitations of either the media, player or both. Software will always be capable of better quality simply because it can be uncompressed. Currently it's really just a matter of distribution. Either software codecs that allow for complete movie storage or streaming solutions that store the movie offsite are the current distribution methods.

So in the end I believe the real winner will be whomever can bring together the right combination of existing technologies and come up with a real distribution experience. This solution will likely have more to do with marketing and the cooperation of big companies than a new technology. But I believe the writing is on the wall for the whole collecting media model and It's only a matter of time. Depending on how much time it takes to pull that together, BR may achieve a modest level of success as a temporary solution. But it will never be the next VHS or DVD.

[gparris]

You're right, Blu-ray Disc is not the next VHS and DVD, it is just an upgrade over DVD, which was a vast improvement over VHS over a dozen years ago.
Blu-ray Disc has its advantage over DVD because of HDTV displays not available at DVD's beginning, that is all.
Current technology for streaming is complicated for the average user, it does not offer what Blu-ray offers in quality from what I have experienced and you cannot swap out discs like many I know who do, it is possible that maybe, you don't.

The bank reference for money is not equitable to owning media, it doesn't hold up, sorry.
-"Big Brother" does not need to know what I am renting on line or whatever, like a bank does my money.
I, like others, want to get my legally-aquired media, share it with others and so on.
(The view master comparison to DVD collections was a cheap shot, BTW.)

Until technology improves so that you can get large enough drives that can legally store all your BD-quality media (not the "hype", but the reality) and still have it allow to "feed" off the drive to a thumbwheel drive to play the media in your car (for the kids in the back seat, for example), BD and DVD will stay around.
My "streamed media" will not be the only thing, it will be a part of it once the downloading times improve drastically, but it won't be the "only thing", ever.

[Gamera]

I'm not sure you're entirely understanding my POV.

It's really no different than what has happened with music, MP3s and things like iTunes. iTunes has become successful thanks to the iPod devices and the simple interface. It didn't require any new technologies, just bringing them together in an elegant solution.

The same will happen with videos. It will be legal, and you will own them. Offline storage and streaming as you need it is one possible solution that will solve local clutter issues. A portable device that allows instant access to video in the same way that iPod offers access to music is another possible solution. A cheap device that consists of removeable flash storage, video decoder and HDMI out is another solution. Again, nothing new, just an opportunity for someone to capitalize on a need by bringing together existing technologies in an elegant solution. It's just around the corner...

[SRW1000]

Current technology for streaming is complicated for the average user, it does not offer what Blu-ray offers in quality from what I have experienced and you cannot swap out discs like many I know who do, it is possible that maybe, you don't.

Vudu seems to be pretty intuitive for most users, and the quality of their HDX titles are supposed to be very close to Blu-ray (no lossless audio, though).  They even have some HD titles that aren't available on Blu-ray yet.

The other example is Netflix's streaming option.  The quality is comparable to DVD (maybe a little better for their HD titles), and there are numerous ways of getting the content to a TV, including BD players and the Xbox 360.

Both ease of use and quality are improving dramatically.

Scott