Format fight

[Gregg Lengling]

The peace talks are over - a war seems inevitable between the two formats competing to replace DVD to become the high definition (HDTV) pre-recorded/recordable disc standard.
Discs and hardware for HD DVD (a format invented by Toshiba) and Blu-ray (which has the backing of Sony and other hardware manufacturers) are expected in US stores by the end of the year, with both camps promising European launches late next year.

Yet backers of both formats are already warning that a skirmish could have a serious impact on sales.

"We are confident that there is huge demand for Blu-ray," argues Ben Feingold, president of Sony Pictures Home Entertainment. "However, if there are two formats rather than one, hardware sales could be down by as much as 60% and that will impact on software sales, too."

David Steel, vice-president of marketing for Samsung Electronics, a company that has strong ties with Toshiba and yet is a member of the Blu-ray group, also laments the failure to agree on a unified format. "If the standards don't come together, both will suffer," he says. "Inevitably, costs to both consumers and manufacturers will be higher."

Analysts at Gartner recently told VNUnet.com that a format war could take two years to resolve. Yet, with the two groups sniping at each other again this week over capacity and security, a deal seems a world away.

So is it likely to be a VHS v Betamax-style fight, with one format emerging victorious? Steel thinks it will be more like the DVD recorder skirmish, where three formats battled it out, none performing as well as the industry had hoped, and none emerging victorious.

The Blu-ray camp has a trump card, however - Sony has already pledged that a player will be part of the PlayStation 3 package when it launches in spring next year. (Although it should be added that Microsoft is rumoured to be considering an HD DVD as part of its Xbox 360 package, too.)

While PlayStation support will ensure several million consumers have Blu-ray machines in their home, however, it doesn't mean they will invest in pre-recorded discs. Especially if a large percentage of PlayStation machines end up in second rooms attached to standard, rather than high definition, TVs.

Almost everyone in the industry believes that in spite of the growth of hard disk technology, a disk-based storage system for HDTV footage is a must. Yet it appears that take-up of that system could be much slower than hoped.

The real winners of the HDTV disc format war could well be online services offering HDTV and video-on-demand, and manufacturers of hard disk recorders.

[picopir8]

I still wonder if this will evolve into a VHS vs. Betamax or more of a DVD+R vs. DVD-R battle.  Im starting to think that most manufacturers will hedge their bets and pay the licensing to support both formats and let publishers determine the winner.  Granted, that will mean higher prices at first, but it will ensure sales which means prices will come down faster.

[tazman]

Any one willing to predict how long it's going to take before the dust settles?

I'm excited about the technology, but not enough to jump in with a looming battle to take place.  I learned my lesson with the superior Beta Vs's VHS war years ago.  If other people feel the same as I do.  The most that come out of this is hurt sales.

[gparris]

If there is a format fight (war) then I give it two years for a universal player or the dust to settle and pricing to come down.
The best thing to happen would be one format with the SD version on the other side of the disc, eliminating the need for separate shelving, stocking, etc in the long run.
But logic does not seem to follow the current trend with neither side giving in and studios taking sides...worse than before with VHS and Beta, when you could rent or buy either one and get the same movie.

[TPK]

Any one willing to predict how long it's going to take before the dust settles?

I'm excited about the technology, but not enough to jump in with a looming battle to take place.  I learned my lesson with the superior Beta Vs's VHS war years ago.  If other people feel the same as I do.  The most that come out of this is hurt sales.

I don't think that this very analgous to the Beta/VHS format war...  The primary diffference being that Beta and VHS took different form factors, and the cassettes were phsycially in-compatible with each-other's tape decks...  It was impossible to make a single deck that worked with both formats....

In this case, we are talking about the same form-factor (a 3 inch disk) for the two different formats, so the two formats are going to be physically compatible...

So, like others have said, its going to be more like a DVD+R DVD-R battle, which in the end doesn't amount to much of a battle...  Today you can buy a DVD Recorder that can record to both types of discs for $40-$50, and no-one cares which media you use (unless you are trying to create DVDs that play on a older more finicky player, which will only accept one type of disc)..

Initially, people will have to choose between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, but a couple of years down the line all HD-DVD players (and perhaps all HD-DVD recorders?) will be able to play (and perhaps record) both types of discs...

Sooo, in the end, I don't think it will matter much....  Perhaps it will start with more HD-DVD content being produced because supposedly its 'cheaper', and then in the very very distant future, no-one will produce HD-DVD discs anymore because the Blu-Ray discs will have so much more capacity...

... Anyhow, thats what I think....

[Bebop]

The war might be over before it starts.


http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000770062478

[GBK]

I won't buy either until I know which one will win.