Taiwanese media factories prefer HD-DVD over Blu-Ray

[Gregg Lengling]

submitted by J. Eric Smith



Can't wait to get your hands on the new high-definition DVDs? Well, prepare to keep waiting, because the fighting between the HD-DVD camp and the Blu-Ray camp continues to rage unabated. The backers of the HD-DVD standard may have an ace up their sleeve, though, and it's in the form of an approval from media manufacturers that might tip the balance in HD-DVD's favor, as Taiwanese media factories gave HD-DVD a slight nudge this week by indicating their preference--although they stress that it is only a slight preference.

Unlike Blu-Ray, HD-DVD is designed much less agressively, so it diverges less from the tried and true current DVD standard. As such, existing DVD production facilities would have minimal retooling needed in order to start cranking out HD-DVDs. Blu-Ray, on the other hand, makes radical alterations to the existing DVD spec, changing pretty much everything except the disc diameter. Blu-Ray's technology would require much more investment by media production factories in order to produce.

The tradeoff for HD-DVD, however, is much lower capacity; initial HD-DVDs would hold only 15-30 GB, with possible expansion to 45 GB. Blu-Ray discs would start at 25-50 GB, with the potential to go to 200 GB.

DigiTimes has a short blurb on this as well.



ERIC'S OPINION
I had the privilege of participating in a panel discussion with representatives from both the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray factions roughly a year ago, and I made up my mind then which one I preferred. Hands down, it's Blu-Ray. Sure, it costs more, but not a lot more if you look at the long run. And look at the payoff: 200 GB capacities are being made in the labs right now, but the best HD-DVD can hope for is about 45 GB. 45 GB is great for HDTV content, but when you start talking about data, 45 GB is practically worthless.

That's where I think Blu-Ray is really going to find its strength over HD-DVD, and it may be enough to put HD-DVD out of business. Why? Economies of scale. If you're shopping for an optical archiving format, assuming prices are within 15% of one another, which are you going to be more likely to pick: 45 GB or 200 GB? Obviously you'd go with the larger one over the smaller.

So, if a format war develops on the entertainment side of the house, HD-DVD might gain an advantage because of lower media costs, but Blu-Ray will be able to sell four or 5 times as many Blu-Ray drives because it'll have the PC market as well. Ergo, Blu-Ray drives will become cheaper faster, and it'll be all downhill for HD-DVD from there.

I think any optical format coming out today that doesn't scale to at least 100 GB is obsolete before it hits the streets. HD-DVD, unfortunately, fits into that category.

I'll put my chips on Blu-Ray and see what happens.

[Bebop]

It's probably going to be up to the movie pirates to dictate which will be the preferred standard in Asian market.