Sat TV Pummels Cable in Second Quarter?

[Gregg Lengling]

The first series of reports from the nation's top cable TV companies are in, and news concerning their basic subscriber counts appears to have become a sore point for the operators.

Does that mean second quarter was a winner for satellite TV?

Here are the numbers so far:

*Comcast, the nation's largest MSO, reported a loss of 96,000 basic customers

*At Time Warner Cable, a loss of 21,000 basic customers

*Cox Communications had a basic customer loss of more than 53,000

*Adelphia lost about 33,000 subscribers, state reports

*Losses for cable TV so far: About 204,000, according to Wall Street estimates

Due to the news from cable, Oppenheimer and Co. cable/satellite TV analyst Tom Eagan raised his second quarter net additions for DirecTV from 340,000 to 360,000 and his EchoStar/DISH Network subscriber estimate from 300,000 to 325,000.

In his analysis, Eagan said he assumes 70,000 to 80,000 basic cable customers were lost to disconnects, which are typically higher in the second quarter, and an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 were bad debt customers. About 40,000 to 60,000 of lost basic cable subscribers - figures that are over and above additions previously estimated by Oppenheimer and Co. - likely migrated to satellite TV during the three-month period, Eagan said.

In a research note released earlier this week, Eagan estimated that 30,000 to 40,000 of Comcast's lost customers migrated to satellite TV.

As for Time Warner Cable, Jordan Rohan of SoundView Technology said the loss of 21,000 basic subscribers for the nation's second largest MSO reflects continued targeting by DirecTV in key markets such as Charlotte, N.C., and Greenville, S.C.

Analyst John Hill, Rohan's colleague at SoundView, said the basic subscriber loss for Cox Communications "was a bit wider than we and consensus had estimated, even after accounting for the sale of systems."

"We don't doubt that satellite has gained share in second quarter, but in the specific case of Cox, third quarter and fourth quarter will be a far better indicator," Hill said in a research note. "Cox is generally avoided by both DISH and DirecTV, though less so than was the case a year ago."

Today, Insight Communications reports second quarter results. Next Thursday, Mediacom, a favorite satellite TV target, reports results and Cablevision releases its financial numbers Aug. 9. DirecTV reports next Thursday, and EchoStar releases second quarter results Aug. 10.

[gb4fan92]

Well maybe if cable would lower thier prices it would help! See article below:



Broadband prices fall in 2004

Expect more aggressive competition


By INQUIRER staff: Friday 30 July 2004, 12:01

ACCORDING TO A NEW analysis by Point Topic, called Broadband Tariff Benchmarks, broadband prices have fallen sharply in the first half of 2004 for both DSL and cable services.
While cable modem operators have cut their monthly rentals at an average of 16%, DSL operators reduced them by 13%. According to the survey, almost all DSL operators surveyed held or reduced prices, while the cable market reduced price widely across the America, Asia Pacific and EMEA markets.

Apparently, cable monthly rentals have almost caught up with the average monthly rentals of DSL providers. The "purchasing power parity" or PPP exchange rates fell from $39.2 to $32.0 for cable operators, but fell only $2.5 for DSL, leaving them at $29.5.

Haroon Butt , a senior analyst from Point Topic, said there will be a "period of increased competition" between DSL and cable companies, and we can expect "aggressive pricing strategies." µ


Time Warner: Are you listening???

[Timgb]

cable to me made HD affordable.  Did not want to spend $500 for a HD box from Direct TV.  Also TWC offers more for HD. The free offers from Sat.  for regular Sat. looked like a desperarte attempt to get customers.   Most people I talk to, don't realize what they are getting. Are surprised that it is non HD .

[gparris]

Aside from the Sci Fi/USA channels not being digitally delivered as some TWC systems have done (unlike the SE Wisc system), for better picture clarity on the cable system, HDTV is good on cable without any upfront costs, only the rental box which has been mostly a good thing for me, in my experience.
If the box goes out or they come out with a better box like the 3510 vs the older 3100, I go to the office and exchange it, no hassle.
If you want satellite, then decide to quit, they have you sign contracts for the "freebies" (like the cellphone companies do) so you don't pull the "plug" on them, quite unlike cable does.
Why? Because when they are desparate for cable's business. Most folks I know thought they were getting something free and found out they had to pay up if they cancelled and asked me if that was the case with my cable service and I, of course, said no.
I asked them who they got their system from and why they have only a single LNB dish on their roof to begin with (no HD service with that).
Because it was "free".
Yeah, right. Not free with a contract. Not free if you cancel. No way.
Then I told them to read the contract, then they got mad at me, but since they didn't ask me to begin with, they had my pity and that's about all, folks!:D