The end of analog cable? Good article about MSO's plans to go all digital in 2-5 yrs.

[kjnorman]

Losing competitors to DirecTV and Dish's DVRs, trapped by duopoly of Scientific Atlanta and Motorola's "behind the trend" cable technology and needing to respond to Federal Conditional Access and open system mandates it looks like the major cable providers want to kill off analog cable with in 5 years and possibly as soon as 2 years.

They seem to be positively encouraged to support open card systems with third party venders giving them the boost to gain a technological advantage over DBS.  

The full article is here.

Interesting points (snipped from the article) are:

NGNA released a Request for Information (RFI) earlier this year. The 100-plus-page document reveals how MSOs might approach the all-digital transition. ...  Although the RFI cites an architecture designed to meet the needs of the industry five years out, it's understood that Cox, Comcast and Time Warner Cable plan to get things rolling much sooner than that.

DBS competition is clearly a key driver of the NGNA initiative. Cable operators are growing increasingly frustrated as EchoStar Communications and DirecTV widely deploy DVRs, leaving cable to play catch-up...

But to do that, the current conditional access (CA) duopoly must be corrected. Today, nearly every U.S. cable system relies on at least one of just two CA providers: Motorola Broadband or Scientific-Atlanta. ... operators are increasingly of the opinion that Motorola's and S-A's grip on the technology has stifled set-top and "cable-ready" CE innovations. With that in mind, NGNA is calling for the CA to be separated from the network. There's also federal pressure to consider, too.

The project also is seeking information on advanced codecs. The RFI references MPEG-4/Part 10 Advanced Video Coding (AVC) and Microsoft Windows Media 9, but notes that "additional approaches will also be considered." On the audio side, the document says NGNA will also evaluate advanced audio coding schemes that claim improvement over Dolby's AC-3.

Remember that U.S. MSOs are required to stop the deployment of set-tops with integrated CAs by July 2006.

Though the idea is to separate the CA, operators are keenly aware that they must continue to support millions of deployed digital boxes during the transition.

In an apparent nod to technologies being spearheaded by vendors such as Digeo Inc., S-A and Ucentric Systems, the document also points to the virtue of whole-home digital video recording products whereby a high-end set-top shares content and applications over a home's coax network with cheaper, thin-client devices. NGNA is also exploring how cable SVDs could access content from the PC via a home network. A home-side network capable of supporting at least four high-definition streams is also under consideration.

The most obvious candidate there is the technology under development by the Multimedia over Coax Alliance (MoCA), an initiative that already has the support of Comcast. HomePlug AV, which plans to handle multiple HD streams, is likely to be another "no new wires" networking technology candidate for the NGNA project.

NGNA, a new acronym in its own right, could add at least two more to cable's customer premises lexicon: ODA, for Outlet Digital Adapter, and VNIU, for Video Network Interface Unit. Both might be used to ease the transition to all-digital, and provide a transparent means to send and convert digital signals to analog customers who do not use set-tops.

Under the first model, operators would install ODAs at each cable outlet to convert digital signals to analog. The RFI references two types of digital adapters: a full-function, two-way ODA and an all-DOCSIS two-way ODA. Both would support MPEG-2 and an advanced video codec. Still another possible variant might support native applications such as electronic program guides and video-on-demand.

Because the ODA does not support OCAP, operators, not retailers, would likely supply the device. NGNA's target for the two-way ODA is less than $50 per unit, and about $35 per unit for the all-DOCSIS device.

One of the more interesting (and certainly least intrusive) concepts on the table is the VNIU, another digital-to-analog device targeted to analog subs without set-tops. But it's designed to be even more transparent to the customer than the ODA. Instead of installing one at every cable outlet in the home, just one VNIU, when affixed to the side of the customer's house, would handle the digital-to-analog conversion for every outlet in the home.

The VNIU's initial specs will likely be different than the ODA. For one, the RFI calls for it to support only MPEG-2 and, because it would sit outside, it would have to operate under extreme temperatures. Because it won't support EPGs and other applications, OCAP also won't apply to the VNIU. NGNA is forecasting a cost target of less than $150 per device, in high volume.

[gparris]

Great article, Kerry!

Cable currently uses only three source vendors SA and Pioneer...sometimes Motorola (TWC Houston). This limits what it can do and does not allow the subscriber to buy anything. This is both good and bad for both subscriber and provider. Home networking is a great competitive edge, but first dumping the analogue channels to free up wasted bandwidth into digital is required.

If the government wants an all-digital transition quicker, cable systems requiring every TV set to have a box to go digital would be the correct method.
People forget that not too long ago, no TV set was "cable ready" and we all had to have an analogue box to get cable TV.
Sets today still advertise this feature...now they can advertise
"digital cable ready" or "Cable Card Ready" as the new sales pitch.

Why not?

As I understand it, some European countries have ditched analogue transmissions almost overnight and people had to get digital boxes if they had OTA only and no cable while others already with cable had to use boxes or else. I didn't hear of any uproar or riots in the streets there. Americans could do the same with the same attitude....just my opinion.
With satellite you need a box for every set and I don't see satellite subscriptions going anywhere but up.
So why not cable? Add it to the price of subscription like everything else and no one will be the wiser.

Then cable could do what was in this article...but not before.:cool:

[borghe]

they will never be able to require a box until it is made blatantly clear that they aren't required to lease the box.. there will always be people who don't want the cost of that box..

IMHO, cable won't be able to go all digital until digital-ready TVs start shipping (OpenCable CAM based ones that is). Once it becomes easy for all people to not have to lease a box cable will be able to make the transition... Until then you will always have a large number of people against the transition.. at least large enough to make it dangerous for cable to force them and suffer the potential churn.

[summerfun]

I don't think this will ever be easy. Digital cable ready TVs aren't even readily available yet. Give that a couple of years, then you need to replace every TV in every home in the US with these new TV sets. That will not happen for twenty years.

There is going to need to be a cut off and people will bitch and moan, but they will have to live with STB for their analog TV sets, whether they lease or not, they won't have a choice. The analog signals will be gone from OTA and cable.

[kjnorman]

Originally posted by borghe
they will never be able to require a box until it is made blatantly clear that they aren't required to lease the box.. there will always be people who don't want the cost of that box..

I believe that this is the point of the VNIU dicussed in the article.  While it might cost $150, it would be chalked up as infrastructure costs to the MSO and not passed on (at least not in any recognisable format) to the consumer.  The VNIU will be located outside of the house at the entry point of the cable into the property.  This unit will convert the digital signal to analog, so that it can be distributed though the house like analog is now.

The advantage of this is that it allows cable to migrate to all digital programming, freeing up bandwidth for more SD channels, new HD channels and hopefully increased bit-rate for improved picture quality, while allowing households happy with thier analog viewing to remain that way for some time, until the point that all TVs are digital cable ready (10 to 15 years?).  

As to whether the VNIU will also pass though the digital signal I would not know.  If it did, then it would be great to still pass though the converted analog signal to old analog TVs, and let the digital signal pass through to you new open card TV, dual tuner DVR, home networked media server and so on...

If cable gets their act together and goes all digital, pushes SD bit rate up to around 3-5Mbs (aka DVD quality) rather than the 1-3Mbs often seen now and increases dramatically the HD offering, then I would drop DBS in a blink of an eye.  Cables new found embrace of open third party hardware will give the consumer better hardward choice (just waiting for the open card HD TiVo and Sony Cocoon systems) should give it great advantage over DirecTV, Dish's and Voom's closed systems.  (I always though that DirecTV had the best equipment but now given DirecTV's decision to close down their system and only other DirecTV brand I believe that they will quickly lose competitive advantage).

Kerry





Kerry