Masses tune (part 2)

[Gregg Lengling]

By July 2006, half the sets as small as 13 inches must have them. A year later, VCRs and DVDs are required to have digital tuners.

It seems far less likely that another deadline will be met: that if 85% of U.S. households have access to digital reception by 2007, analog signals will disappear and existing TVs will be obsolete.

"Does anybody really believe at the end of 2006 we're going to shut off analog TV? No," says Dave Arland of Thomson, maker of the RCA brand. "But I think that day will come in 2010 or 2012."

Also, on July 1, the initial aspects of an agreement between major cable broadcasters and consumer electronics companies will kick in, leading to the arrival of digital cable TVs that don't require separate set-top boxes. Newer TVs incorporate slots for authorization cards.

But the first of these cable-ready TVs will operate in only one direction. That means a separate box will still be required for such features as an interactive programming guide and movies on demand.

Confusion still a problem

Consumer electronics companies and their cable counterparts are grappling over the standards for a two-way solution.

Indeed, there are hurdles to wide-scale HD adoption.
About 1 in 3 buyers plans to eschew HDTV as his or her next TV purchase, and 25% have ruled it out completely, the CEA says. Roughly a fourth are confused about some aspect of the purchase.

Moreover, some people who have bought HDTVs report that analog programming — and there's still plenty of it — looks worse on certain digital sets.

"It's a complicated purchase. It really is," says Myra Moore, senior analyst for Digital Tech Consulting, a market research firm in Dallas.

Clearing up the confusion starts with understanding the very concept of digital TV. Though HDTV is digital television, it is possible to buy a digital TV that is not high definition. There are 18 digital formats. Those that adhere to Standard Definition (SD) or Enhanced Definition (EDTV) standards don't quite measure up to full-fledged HD, though SD and EDTV are still superior to analog.

Consumers might also need a scorecard to sort through the TV display options, including whether to buy an HD monitor or a set with an integrated digital tuner.

At the top of the heap are the dazzling wall-hanging, flat-panel models, including plasmas and LCDs (liquid crystal displays). Then there are the thin and alluring sets based on so-called micro-display technologies.

Ultimately, both flat panels and micro-displays will replace the CRT, or tube, TVs folks grew up with, even though tubes are the most affordable and still arguably produce the most stunning pictures. A downside to tubes: smaller screen sizes and bulky cabinets.

Depending on what and when you buy, you may or may not get a set with the latest connectors. "Generally speaking, technology is going to continue to evolve to help consumers, not to give them the feeling of being stranded or obsolete," says Sony Senior Vice President Tim Baxter.

Getting with the program

Retailers have the unenviable task of enlightening the masses. "TVs are not as simple as toasters anymore," says Lee Simonson, Best Buy's business team leader for TVs. "You don't pull a knob and click to the station you want to watch anymore."

Moreover, access to HD fare depends on where people live and how they get signals in the first place, be it cable, satellite or over-the-air broadcasts. For example, HDNet is not available on Cablevision, Cox and Comcast systems.

Viewers may have to hook up an antenna on the roof or in the attic to supplement satellite or cable coverage, especially if they hope to receive local channels in HD.

Some broadcasters have simply not gotten with the program; HD requires the most bandwidth. In-Stat/MDR analyst Mike Paxton notes that cable operators can devote 6 megahertz to one HD channel. But they can carry up to 10 standard-definition channels on one 6-MHz channel.

For end users, a superior picture is only part of the deal. Consumers ultimately want to have the same viewing experience with HD that they have with analog. That means the ability to time-shift and record. But high-definition components are costly. TiVo and DirecTV unveiled a $1,000 30-hour HD recorder.

Rival Dish Network sells a dual tuner satellite receiver, the Dish Player-DVR 921, that can record up to 25 hours of high-definition content. It costs $999.

Hurdles will be solved over time, which is why industry cheerleader Shapiro, for one, remains bullish. "I'm so proud of HDTV," he says, "that my tombstone will be in 16-by-9."