Analysts Expect Sales of High-Definition TV Sets to Rise by 50 Percent in 2004

[Gregg Lengling]

By Jim Fuquay, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas
Mar. 12--Sales of high-definition television sets are expected to grow more than 50 percent in 2004, thanks to lower prices and more programming, analysts say.

Yankee Group, a Boston technology research firm, estimates that Americans will buy between 6 million and 7 million HDTVs this year, compared with about 4 million in 2003. That will be enough to put HDTV sets in about one in eight U.S. households, said Adi Kishore, media and entertainment analyst at Yankee Group.

"Just going back a few years, HDTV was not taking off, and with good reason," Kishore said. "They were quite expensive, and there was almost no programming." But the rapid expansion of digital programming over the air and via cable and satellite providers, along with plunging prices, has finally sparked sales, he said.

According to the Consumer Electronics Association, the average price of an HDTV set is expected to be $1,295 in 2004 -- about half the price in 1999.

Programming advances are reflected by the number of local television stations broadcasting in HD, including 15 in Dallas-Fort Worth, according to the National Association of Broadcasters. In all, the association said, more than 1,150 stations in more than 200 markets carry an HD signal at least some of the time.

"Prime time is already in high-definition. DirecTV has five HD channels," said Stuart Schuster, president of Marvin Electronics in Fort Worth. And while Schuster's store handles high-end equipment, he's also doing a lot of business in that prosaic symbol of suburbia, the television antenna.

"You only need half the strength of an analog signal" for a good picture, he said, and HD signals carry as far as 70 miles. "We try to use an HD-ready antenna, and as a rule they work real fine," he said.

Still, not everyone needs an HD tuner built into their television, Kishore said. Cable and satellite television customers can get high-definition tuners as part of their service, he said.

The technology should get a boost July 1. That's the Federal Communications Commission's deadline for manufacturers to include a digital tuner in at least half of the television sets they sell that are 36 inches or larger. Deadlines for other sizes phase in gradually, until by July 2007 all sets down to 13 inches must have a digital tuner.

In the meantime, consumers should look for the term "integrated HD" for a television with a built-in HD tuner. The terms "HD monitor" or "HD-ready" indicate that a set does not have an HD tuner but is capable of displaying an HD picture.

North Texas residents also get a break in the cost of HD cable service, Kishore said, because Comcast and Charter Communications offer HD programming for an extra $5 or less a month. That's about half what some cable operators charge, he said.

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