HDTV to get critical mass in 2003?

[Gregg Lengling]

David Pogue wrote a good "Where's HDTV?" interview with Gary Merson (senior video editor for The Perfect Vision magazine, and author and publisher of the HDTV Insider newsletter) for the New York Times.

The three major networks are broadcasting the vast majority of their prime time shows in HDTV. This week, for example, CBS will broadcast 19 of its 22 prime-time hours in HDTV. The networks have announced that David Letterman and Conan O'Brien's shows will join Jay Leno in HDTV. Major sporting events and programs will also be in HDTV, including The Academy Awards, The Grammys, US Open Tennis, Basketball, Monday Night Football, and many more. Even the WB is offering shows in HD.

Also currently in HD almost 24 hours a day: HBO, Discovery HD Theater, HD Net and Showtime. (You can get these either by satellite or, within several months, cable.) Additional HD channels coming on board this year: Cinemax, ESPN, three more HD Net Channels (movies, sports, entertainment), The Hallmark Channel and Bravo HD.

HD-DVD is another critical piece of the puzzle, but I'm happy to see that there's so much HDTV content out there.
Comments
Sadly, this time David Pogue has simply got it wrong. There is no HDTV mandate (just digital). The OTA (over the air) broadcast system doesn't work reliably and 53% of household still have at least one OTA receiver although 75% of households get primary service by cable or satellite.

HDTV will become a very profitable niche market for those households who have space for HDTV. Get back more than 3.5 screen height and you can no longer resolve HD even if the display could actually show it (most "HD ready" sets cannot in fact display it).

Combine it with research that says joe public can see a big improvement in digital 16:9 480 P and none for the huge additional investment and the lack of business model for OTA broadcast of one expensive HD signal (one revenue stream) compared with 3 or 4 SD signals and revenue streams and it simply does not add up.

Niche markets can be profitable but I doubt HD will ever get more than 15% penetratioin.

Sadly, either David Pogue has simply failed to research adequately or he was simply disingenous