15% HD: Good News Or Bad?

[Gregg Lengling]

By Jonathan Bellows


Here's a not-so-easy question: Would you say that HD in 15% of homes by 2008 is good news or bad news? What about if half of those homes actually received HD services?

  It's a hard question. In late October, new research from Strategy Analytics, in a report released to subscribers to its Broadband Entertainment Strategies service, demonstrated what it called a "growing demand for high definition television." Let's keep in mind we're talking five years or so down the line.

Strategy Analytics recommended that cable/satellite operators and content owners plan for a high definition future. A future which, if its research is correct, has 7.5% of U.S. homes being able to receive and view HD in five years.

Personally, I think that sucks. But I've been wrong before.

I had a chat with Jeffrey Ulrich, with whom I share two traits: we both write for DigitalTV-Television Broadcast and we both watch HDTV. He thinks this is good. That HDTV is catching on and within five years we'll see market penetration that exceeds where PVRs are today. He also says the glass is half full and the Bills still have a chance this season.

According to Strategy Analytics, here's what we know: "HDTV sales are being driven by demand for larger, high-quality TV displays. Already today, the majority of TV receivers retailing at $1,500 or more are HD-capable." All true. What is also true is that retailers are starting to figure out how to sell HDTVs, albeit slowly.

Some more news which could be good or bad: "Strategy Analytics predicts that 4.8 million U.S. homes will own an HD-capable display by the end of 2002, of which nearly one million will also have HDTV tuners for either cable, satellite, or terrestrial platforms." That translates to just under 5% of U.S. homes with HD-capable sets and less than 1% with HD tuners.

The Wacky World Of HDTV

What we're really looking at over the next five years is an average annual growth of HDTV sets in the home of about 2%. The growth rate for those actually having access to HD programming will be just a bit more than 1% annually. Still excited? Then there's the HD content distribution problem, which Ulrich addresses: "I still think it's sad that cable and satellite will make $$$ off selling HD programming to upscale viewers. Broadcast has all the best content, and they get no $$$ from viewers. Mark Cuban has pretty flowers and helicopter shots of obscure lands, and he'll soon be cashing checks from DirecTV subscribers. Go figure."

Go figure indeed. Need more? Try this...

"HDTV has been a long time coming," said David Mercer, vice president, Broadband Practice, at Strategy Analytics. "But sufficient momentum is now building at both content and operator levels to ensure a successful niche market in the longer term."

And there's the rub—"niche market."

Niche: A special area of demand for a product or service.
Broadcast: Wide area dissemination.

Personally, I don't really care when NTSC goes away. But when do you think HDTV will move from being a "niche market" commodity to being a "broadcast" commodity?


Jonathan Bellows is a contributing editor. He can be reached at: jbellows@uemedia.com.
from: http://www.digitaltelevision.com